Follow the numbers, not the narrative.
BritoInvests is Daryl Brito's personal investing research home — one deep dive per company, per quarter: what was reported, what the market expected, the metrics that actually move each stock, and what to watch next. No buy/sell calls. Just the print, in context.
PayPal
Non-GAAP EPS $1.45 vs ~$1.31 expected. Revenue and TPV slightly light. FY EPS guide raised to ~$5.60.
NASDAQ: SOFI ReportedSoFi
Adjusted revenue $1.371B vs ~$1.25B expected. FY26 raised; 2027 guided to $6.4B revenue, $0.90 EPS.
EURONEXT: ADYEN ReportedAdyen
Net revenue €738.1M (+23%) and volume €451.1B (+30%) both beat. The 2026 margin target was cut to 50% and the 55%+ by 2028 target scrapped. Grade: B−.
NYSE: CVNA ReportedCarvana
Revenue $8.04B (+42%) and 217K retail units both beat; EPS $0.39 missed. Grade: B.
NYSE: VG Nov 10Venture Global
Q3 consensus is a range, $0.49–$0.55 EPS. Q2 was a record print that still sold off on leverage.
One-year price performance — rebased to 100 (month-end closes, Finnhub)
Month-end closes Oct 2025 – Oct 2026 (Oct 2026 = Oct 23 close). Both PYPL and SOFI lagged the index badly over the year; VG beat it — off a depressed Dec 2025 low. Source: research data files (Finnhub, fetched Oct 27, 2026).
PayPal — the profit-conversion test
Q3 2026, reported Oct 27, 2026. The 2026 pattern: PayPal beat in 7 of its last 8 quarters, but beats alone didn't move the stock — guidance and margin did. This quarter delivered both a beat and a raise, on margin rather than volume.
Reported Q3 2026 vs the pre-earnings bar
Reported · Oct 27, 2026
Actuals as reported in PayPal's Q3 release and summarised on BritoInvests from the release; consensus is the pre-earnings bar kept for comparison. CEO confirmed in the release: Enrique Lores.
| Metric | Reported | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.45 (+8% YoY) | ~$1.31–$1.32 | Beat ~10% |
| Revenue | $8.584B (+2% YoY) | $8.71B | Light |
| Total payment volume | $487.1B (+6% YoY) | ~$489.4B | Light |
| Transaction margin dollars | $3.95B (+2%) | Slightly positive guide | In line / better |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 18.8% | 17.4% in Q2 | Expanded |
| Transaction margin rate | 46.0% | 44.9% in Q2 | Recovered |
| GAAP EPS | $1.25 (−4% YoY) | — | See footnote ↓ |
| Free cash flow | $1.43B (−17% YoY) | Adj. FCF $2.05B | Soft spot |
| Active accounts | 440M | 439M in Q2 | Flat |
| Buybacks | $1.5B in Q3 · $6B TTM | ~$6B FY guide | Intact |
Guidance: full-year non-GAAP EPS raised to ~$5.60 (from ~$5.38); Q4 guided to ~$1.43 vs $1.23 a year ago. Footnote: the GAAP / non-GAAP gap ($1.25 vs $1.45) is mostly $178M of restructuring charges, $33M of acquired-intangible amortisation and tax effects — see the Glossary. Operating cash flow was $1.59B; adjusted FCF adds back a $616M BNPL loan-timing item.
The Q2 baseline Q3 was judged against
Venmo TPV +14% to $93.81B; Braintree/PSP mid-teens; branded checkout +2% currency-neutral.
Q2's 44.9% (from 46.4% a year earlier) was the bear case in one number. Q3 recovered it.
Down 7 bps — the mix shift from branded checkout to lower-margin Braintree/Venmo.
Gross run-rate savings over 2–3 years; ~$400M by end-2026; ~20% workforce reduction reported.
Buybacks — how fast the share count is shrinking
One quarter alone retired roughly 3% of the shares outstanding at the start of the year.
The trailing-12-month pace through Q3 — the buyback is running at a full-year scale, not a token return.
Down from 920M at the end of 2025. Diluted weighted average was 858M in Q3 vs 960M a year earlier — about 10% smaller year over year.
$4.55B spent through Q3 implies ~$1.5B for Q4 at the current pace. No explicit 2027 buyback target has been announced.
That shrinking denominator is a real EPS tailwind even with modest profit growth: fewer shares means each dollar of net income is spread thinner in reverse — more earnings per remaining share. If the $1.5B-a-quarter pace simply held, that is ~$6B a year — at ~$54 a share, roughly 110M shares a year retired. That is arithmetic, not company guidance: the actual pace depends on the stock price, free cash flow (guided to at least $6.5B adjusted FCF for 2026), and the board keeping the authorisation topped up, and new shares issued for employee compensation are a small offset in reality.
The 5-year illustration — if $1.5B a quarter held
| Year | Shares out | EPS | Implied price (at 9.2×) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 837M | $5.86 | ~$54 |
| Year 1 | 726M | $6.95 | ~$64 |
| Year 2 | 632M | $8.22 | ~$76 |
| Year 3 | 553M | $9.68 | ~$89 |
| Year 4 | 486M | $11.35 | ~$105 |
| Year 5 | 429M | $13.25 | ~$122 |
On those assumptions the price roughly doubles — about 2.3× over five years — not because profits surge, but because $30B retires nearly half the share count, so EPS more than doubles while net income only grows 3% a year. The gains decelerate in percentage terms each year because $6B buys fewer shares as the price rises: the buyback yield starts around 13% and falls from there.
What would break the illustration
- The multiple is everything. The path holds P/E at ~9.2×. The same Year 5 EPS of $13.25 is worth ~$106 at 8×, ~$122 at 9.2×, ~$159 at 12× and ~$199 at 15×. If the market re-rates PayPal down, buybacks alone won't save the price.
- Funding is tight. $6B of buybacks plus ~$0.45B of dividends is ~$6.45B a year against ~$6.5B+ of adjusted free cash flow. Any FCF shortfall means slower buybacks or added debt.
- Growth has to at least hold. If net income flatlines or falls, the EPS compounding weakens — buybacks amplify whatever the underlying business does, in both directions.
How buybacks work when growth declines
- They cushion EPS — they don't amplify the decline. EPS = net income ÷ shares. Shrinking the denominator can make EPS rise while the business shrinks (see below) — camouflage, not a cure.
- The real downside is the multiple. Price = EPS × P/E. When growth fades, the market usually cuts the multiple, and that compression can overwhelm the buyback tailwind.
- The cash trap. Cash spent retiring shares at a higher price can't fund a turnaround, pay down debt, or go out as dividends — and if buybacks become debt-funded as FCF falls, interest pushes income down further.
The masking effect, in numbers
At a flat $54 price, so $6B retires ~111M shares a year:
- Now: $4.9B income ÷ 837M shares = $5.86 EPS
- Year 1, income down 5%: $4.66B ÷ 726M shares = $6.41 EPS — up ~9% while the business fell 5%
- Year 2, income down 5% again: $4.42B ÷ 615M shares = $7.19 EPS — still rising
A declining business can print rising EPS for years on buybacks alone. The shareholder risk shows up elsewhere: that Year 2 EPS of $7.19 is worth ~$66 at 9.2×, but only ~$50 at 7× if growth disappears and the market re-rates the stock — below today's ~$54, despite much higher EPS. And if the $6B bought shares at $54 that later trade at $35, that $6B bought stock now worth ~$3.9B — value transferred from remaining holders to those who sold. Bottom line: buybacks amplify the per-share story in both directions, but on the downside the damage comes through a shrinking multiple and spent cash, not through EPS — EPS is the one number buybacks flatter.
Earnings history — beats haven't been enough in 2026
| Quarter | Consensus | Actual (non-GAAP) | Result | Revenue | Post-report move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 · Oct 27, 2026 | $1.31–$1.32 | $1.45 | Beat | $8.584B | Guidance raised |
| Q2 2026 · Jul 28, 2026 | $1.28 | $1.38 | Beat | $8.68B | ~+1% pre-market despite beat-and-raise |
| Q1 2026 · May 5, 2026 | $1.27 | $1.34 | Beat | $8.35B | Fell ~8–9% — weak Q2 guide |
| Q4 2025 · Feb 3, 2026 | $1.29 | $1.23 | Miss | $8.68B | Fell >20% |
| Q3 2025 · Oct 28, 2025 | $1.20–$1.21 | $1.34 | Beat | $8.42B | — |
| Q2 2025 · Jul 29, 2025 | $1.30 | $1.40 | Beat | $8.29B | — |
Bull case
- Volume re-accelerating: TPV +10–11% in Q1–Q2, Venmo/Braintree mid-teens, BNPL +23–26%.
- Branded checkout stabilised at +2% instead of shrinking; Q3 margin recovery supports the conversion story.
- ~10× earnings vs ~34–35× for Visa/Mastercard; $6B buybacks and $6B+ FCF guide support the equity.
- David Einhorn's Greenlight added PYPL in Q2 at an average ~$43.53, arguing the asset base was undervalued.
Bear case
- Q3's beat was margin-led: revenue and TPV both came in light — the growth question is still open.
- Structural mix shift pressures take rate and margin; active accounts flat at ~439–440M.
- FCF fell 17% in Q3; GAAP EPS fell 4% on restructuring and taxes.
- Competition: Apple Pay, Shop Pay, Stripe and BNPL providers remain the persistent overhang.
Holder takeaway
Positive, because the raise is what the stock had been waiting for — but it's a margin-led beat, not a growth re-acceleration. Non-GAAP for the trend, GAAP for the truth: watch whether the $0.20 gap stays restructuring-sized or becomes a habit.
Watch next — Q4 print
- Branded checkout TPV: holds +2% or re-accelerates? Take rate stabilises above 1.61%?
- Cost savings: is the ~$400M 2026 tranche visible in operating margin?
- Any update on the Stripe/Advent overhang, 2027 segment reporting, or capital returns.
Analysts: consensus Hold — Longbridge (44 institutions): 4 Buy, 3 Overweight, 33 Hold, 1 Underweight, 3 Sell; target ~$56.89, range $36–$80. Recent: Truist raised target $53 → $58 (Hold, Oct 23); Barclays cut $57 → $56 (Equal Weight, Oct 9); BofA initiated Underperform (Oct 15).
Sources — PayPal
- Buybacks & shares outstanding: PayPal Q3 2026 release — ~28M shares / $1.5B in Q3, ~117M shares / $6.0B trailing 12 months, 837M shares outstanding at Sep 30, 2026 (920M at end-2025), diluted weighted average 858M in Q3. The 5-year table above is a BritoInvests illustration on stated assumptions, not company guidance.
- Consensus & history: MarketBeat PYPL earnings · MarketBeat PYPL
- Preview: Zacks · Zacks key metrics · Admiral Markets
- Q2 recap: TradingView · Analysts: Longbridge
- Takeover reporting: Investor's Business Daily
SoFi — the quarter the thesis needed
Q3 2026, reported Oct 27, 2026. The 2026 pattern was beats that sold off because guidance was merely held. This time SoFi beat, raised the year, and guided 2027 for the first time — with NIM, credit and capital all landing on the right side.
Reported Q3 2026 vs the pre-earnings bar
Reported · Oct 27, 2026
Actuals from SoFi's Q3 2026 release as summarised on BritoInvests; consensus kept alongside. Options had priced a ~9.7% move either way.
| Metric | Reported | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net revenue | $1.371B (+44% YoY) | ~$1.25–$1.26B | Beat ~9% |
| GAAP revenue | $1.385B | — | — |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.18 (+64% YoY) | ~$0.17 | Beat |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $469.8M · 34% margin | — | +70% YoY |
| Net income | $241.0M | — | +73% YoY |
| Members / products | 17.1M / 26.7M | 15.8M / 24.4M in Q2 | Records: +1.2M / +2.2M |
| Originations | $16.9B (+71%) · incl. $3.8B Loan Platform | $14.8B in Q2 | Record |
| Deposits / NIM | $51.3B · NIM 6.14% | NIM 5.98% in Q2 | NIM rose |
| Fee-based revenue | $570.6M | $472.3M in Q2 | Growing mix |
| Personal-loan charge-offs | 2.26% headline · ~3.4% all-in | 2.62% / ~3.7% in Q2 | Improved |
| Tangible book value / share | $7.48 (+25% YoY) | $7.34 in Q2 | Capital strengthened |
Guidance: FY2026 raised to $5.04B revenue / $1.66B EBITDA / ~$0.61 EPS (from $4.75–4.85B revenue). First 2027 guidance: ~$6.4B revenue / ~$2.24B EBITDA / ~$0.90 EPS. Deposits fund ~90% of liabilities at ~145 bps below warehouse funding. Watch-outs inside the beat: Technology Platform revenue −24% YoY on the large-client exit (+18% excluding it); sales & marketing +55% to $444M.
The flywheel, Q2 baseline → Q3
Share of new products opened by existing members (Q2) — the metric bulls cite most. Held in Q3.
+$5.8B in Q3 alone. Cheap deposit funding is the NIM story: 6.14% despite rate headwinds.
Since Sep 22, 2026 SoFi Bank settles its entire Mastercard card programme (>$25B annualised) in its own stablecoin. Caveat: SoFiUSD is not a deposit and not FDIC-insured.
Management expects normalisation to low-to-mid teens as the loan book grows. Q3: equity rose to $11.3B, no raise language.
Earnings history — beats that sold off, until guidance changed
| Quarter | Consensus | Actual (adj.) | Result | Revenue | Post-report move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 · Oct 27, 2026 | ~$0.17 | $0.18 | Beat | $1.371B adj. | Guidance raised + 2027 guide |
| Q2 2026 · Jul 29, 2026 | $0.11 | $0.12 | Beat | $1.21B | Fell ~9% — EPS guide held at $0.60 |
| Q1 2026 · Apr 29, 2026 | $0.12 | $0.12 | Met | $1.10B | Fell ~8.5% pre-mkt — guide held |
| Q4 2025 · Jan 30, 2026 | $0.11–$0.12 | $0.12–$0.13 | Beat | $1.0B+ GAAP | Fell (3 of last 4 fell) |
| Q3 2025 · Oct 28, 2025 | $0.08 | $0.11 | Beat | $961.6M | +5.53% |
Note: Q3 2025 revenue is quoted as $949.6M adjusted on some tables vs ~$962M on others — provider bases differ; the YoY growth rates (+31–32% into Q3 2026 consensus) are consistent. Q4 2024's $0.29 included a one-off tax benefit.
Bull case
- Flywheel accelerating: members +35%, products +44%, cross-sell 51%, record originations.
- Deposits fund prime borrowers cheaply; fee-based revenue growing; NIM expanded in Q3.
- Tangible book +25% YoY; stablecoin settlement is a genuinely differentiated asset.
- If 40%+ growth converts to profit as marketing normalises, ~$20 consensus comes into view.
Bear case
- Fair-value marks on a ~$46–48B loan book: KBW flagged >$1B gross pre-hedge Q3 headwind from higher rates.
- Fast loan growth consumes capital; dilution is real (share count +~14–16% YoY).
- Tech Platform shrank after a large exit; Financial Services margin fell on heavy marketing.
- Rate backdrop turned hostile: Fed hiked Sep 16, 2026 to 3.75–4.00%; 10-yr ~5.27–5.31% in early Oct.
Holder takeaway
Growth and profitability and a raise and a 2027 guide — the quarter the thesis needed. If the stock still sells off on this, the debate stops being about execution and starts being about valuation and rates.
Watch next — Q4 print
- Fair-value marks vs hedges; NIM and deposit costs after the rate reset.
- Capital: CET1/total capital vs 18.8%, and any repeat of “no new equity needed.”
- Loan Platform + fee-based mix: does capital-light revenue fund growth without dilution?
Analysts: Moderate Buy, split and drifting — TipRanks avg target $20.47; Barchart ~$20.18; Nexqual (26 analysts) mean $20.22, range $12–$30. Bulls: StoneX Buy $25 (Oct 13), Monness Crespi Buy $20 (Oct 26), Benchmark Strong Buy (Oct 14). Bears: KBW Sell, target cut $16 → $15; Goldman Hold $18 → $15; Truist Hold $19 → $16.
Sources — SoFi
- Consensus & history: MarketBeat SOFI earnings · Zacks preview
- Options / expectations: TipRanks · Analysts: TipRanks roundup · Nexqual
- Stablecoin: Coin360 · Crypto Briefing
Adyen — a beat the market refused to pay for
Q3 2026 business update, reported Oct 28, 2026. Adyen doesn't report a full P&L in Q3 — this is a trading update, so there's no EPS line. The quarter itself beat on revenue, volume and every segment. The stock fell ~12% anyway, because management cut this year's margin target and deleted the medium-term one in the same release.
Reported Q3 2026 vs the pre-update bar
Business update · Oct 28, 2026
Actuals from Adyen's Q3 2026 business update; consensus is the company-compiled bar cited by Reuters. First quarter consolidating Talon.One (loyalty) and Orb (billing) — together they contributed ~2 points of the revenue growth.
| Metric | Reported | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | €738.1M (+23% YoY · +22% cc) | ~€730.3M | Beat ~1% |
| Processed volume | €451.1B (+30% YoY) | ~€435.6B | Beat ~4% |
| Digital net revenue | €387.4M (+16% YoY) | — | Steady core |
| Unified Commerce net revenue | €250.5M (+29% YoY) | — | Strong |
| Platforms net revenue | ~€100M (+46% YoY) | — | Standout |
| FY26 net revenue growth guide | 21–23% (constant currency) | Unchanged | Reiterated |
| 2026 EBITDA margin target | 50% | ~52% previously | Cut 2 pts |
| Medium-term margin target | Discontinued “to retain flexibility” | 55%+ by 2028 | Scrapped |
Why margins are being spent down: management is accelerating investment — 1,000–1,100 new hires planned for 2026 (engineers and go-to-market) plus heavier spend behind Talon.One and Orb — because merchant demand for the combined payments + billing + loyalty bundle came in stronger than planned. Capex stays guided at ~7% of net revenue. There is no new profitability anchor until the 2027 objectives arrive with full-year results in February — and an interim CFO is in place meanwhile.
The quarter in numbers
€451.1B in the quarter — accelerating from +25% last quarter, and ahead of the €435.6B the market expected.
Platforms is the fastest-growing pillar (+46% YoY) — embedded payments and financial products are compounding off a small base.
The in-person footprint behind Unified Commerce's +29% — online and in-store on one platform is the pitch merchants keep buying.
The two acquisitions' first consolidated quarter. The bundle demand they created is management's stated reason for the extra hiring and spend.
Bull case
- Investing from strength, not weakness: biggest-ever enterprise cohort, wallet-share gains with existing merchants, growth accelerating on volume.
- The acquisitions are pulling harder than planned — if the bundle keeps winning merchants, today's margin “sacrifice” buys a bigger revenue base.
- Even at 50%, the EBITDA margin is elite for payments; revenue guide held at 21–23% growth with the spend included.
- Down ~40% YTD — expectations, and the multiple, have already been reset hard.
Bear case
- The premium valuation rested on 20%+ growth and margins marching 52% → 55%+. The second half of that equation is now unanchored.
- Take-rate compression is structural: volume +30% converting to revenue +23% means each new euro of volume is worth less.
- Guidance credibility took a hit — Degroof Petercam called the cut a “nasty surprise,” coming soon after acquisition-related guidance changes.
- No 2027 anchor until February, with an interim CFO — four months of forecast dispersion for the market to price.
Holder takeaway — grade: B−
The quarter itself was an A−: beats on revenue, volume and all three segments, with Platforms compounding at +46%. The guidance was a D: cutting 2026 margins to 50% and deleting the 2028 target in the same breath. That guidance — not the print — is what the market graded, and it graded it −12%. The February full-year release, with 2027 objectives, is now the whole story.
Watch next — FY results, February 2027
- The 2027 objectives: does a margin anchor come back, and at what level?
- Hiring conversion: do the 1,000–1,100 adds show up as revenue, or just a higher cost base?
- Take rate: does the volume-to-revenue gap (30% vs 23%) keep widening as mega-merchants scale?
Sources — Adyen
- Company update: Adyen Q3 2026 business update (Oct 28, 2026) — net revenue €738.1M, processed volume €451.1B, segment revenue, 878k terminals, 2026 objectives (50% EBITDA margin; 21–23% cc revenue growth; capex ~7% of net revenue).
- Reaction & consensus: Finance Magnates · Reuters via Global Banking & Finance
- Analyst colour (Degroof Petercam “nasty surprise”, hiring plan, interim CFO): Finimize · TradingView / dpa-AFX
Carvana — record growth, questioned earnings
Q3 2026, reported Oct 28, 2026 (after the close). Record revenue, record retail units, record EBITDA dollars — and an EPS miss. The next day the stock ripped +15.7%, its best day in over a year, ending a seven-week losing streak. The quarter showed the operating machine at full tilt; the pop showed how washed-out expectations had become.
Reported Q3 2026 vs the pre-earnings bar
Reported · Oct 28, 2026
Actuals from Carvana's Q3 2026 release and earnings call; consensus is the pre-report bar (Zacks/MarketBeat). Carvana reports retail units, wholesale units and gross profit per unit (GPU) as its core operating metrics.
| Metric | Reported | Expected | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.04B (+42.4% YoY) | ~$7.67–7.71B | Beat ~3–5% |
| Retail units sold | 217,385 (+39% YoY) | ~210–211K | Beat — record, first quarter >200K |
| Wholesale units sold | 111,119 | ~107K | Beat |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $800M · 10.0% margin | — | Record dollars; margin compressed from 11.3% |
| GAAP net income | $483M · 6.0% margin (+$220M YoY) | — | — |
| Diluted EPS | $0.39 | $0.44–$0.47 | Miss ~13–17% |
| Total GPU | $6,997 GAAP / $7,093 non-GAAP | — | Down ~$410 YoY |
| FY2026 adj. EBITDA guide | High end of $2.7–$3.0B | — | Tilt within unchanged range — not a formal raise |
| Q4 2026 outlook | Retail units up sequentially | — | “As long as the environment remains stable” |
The EPS miss partly reflects a one-time $53M pretax expense from early redemption of senior secured notes. In the quarter Carvana refinanced the remaining $1.7B of its 2030 senior secured notes into a Term Loan B (~$45M annual interest savings). Cash was $3.172B at Sept 30 (+43% YoY); net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA of 0.8x and EBITDA/interest of 6.9x are both company records.
The quarter in numbers
First quarter over 200K — the 11th straight quarter of industry-leading growth, while the broader used market was roughly flat. Share gains, not market beta.
Record dollars — but the margin compressed from 11.3% a year ago. Dollars compounding, margins drifting the wrong way.
A company record, with $3.2B cash. The 2022-era bankruptcy risk that defined the bear case is gone.
Per AIInvest's analysis — the heart of the bear thesis (see below). Reported profit leans on financing economics, not just car economics.
Bull case
- Category-defining compounder: 11 straight quarters of industry-leading growth in a huge, fragmented market; high new-car prices structurally push budget buyers toward used.
- Operating leverage ahead: ~870K annualized run rate against 1.5M of built reconditioning capacity (real estate for 3M) — volume filling that capacity plus long-run ad leverage is the path to the 13.5% EBITDA margin target.
- Balance sheet de-risked: 0.8x leverage, record interest coverage, $3.2B cash — the existential risk is off the table.
- Expectations were washed out: the stock fell seven straight weeks into the print (trough $55.92 on Oct 26); the +15.7% reaction shows how little was priced in.
Bear case
- Earnings quality: if gain-on-sale normalizes — via rates, credit, or scrutiny — true earnings power is far below reported, and ~25x EV/EBITDA is really 40–50x.
- Margin trajectory is wrong-way: 11.3% → 10.0% EBITDA margin, GPU down ~$410 YoY, rate cuts “buying” growth, ops and ad costs rising per unit.
- The related-party overhang never clears: Hindenburg/Gotham allegations unresolved; insiders net sold ($5.8M sold vs $1.5M bought in 90 days).
- Structurally rate-sensitive (~$200/unit macro drag in Q3) with continued share-count dilution; CarMax's strong quarter shows traditional retail isn't standing still.
Holder takeaway — grade: B
The operating quarter was an A−: records on revenue, units and EBITDA dollars, growing multiples of the industry. The print was a B−: an EPS miss, margin compression, GPU sliding as lower customer rates bought growth. Earnings quality is a C — three-quarters of EBITDA from loan-sale gains caps the multiple honest investors will pay. Net: B, a notch above PayPal and Adyen on sheer operating momentum. At $68 (~25x EV/EBITDA on ~$3B of FY26 EBITDA) the stock prices in continued 30%+ unit growth and margin expansion toward 13.5% — the realistic range is $80–90 on execution, $45–55 if margins keep compressing. After a 16% pop, the near-term risk/reward leans unfavorable.
Watch next — Q4 2026
- Sequential unit growth: does Q4 beat 217K “as long as the environment remains stable”?
- FY26 EBITDA: does it land at the high end (~$3.0B)?
- Margin trajectory: does 10.0% stabilize, or keep compressing?
- Loan-sale gains: any new disclosure, or renewed scrutiny?
Sources — Carvana
- Company release: Carvana Q3 2026 results (BusinessWire, Oct 28, 2026)
- Earnings call transcripts: AlphaStreet · MarketBeat · Fool
- Estimates vs actuals: Zacks
- Analyst reaction & price action: TradingView/Stocktwits · TipRanks · MarketBeat
- Loan-sale dependence analysis: AIInvest; insider data: Trefis
Venture Global — growth proven, conversion pending
Q3 2026 reports before the open Tuesday, Nov 10, 2026 (call 9:00 AM ET) — not yet reported. This section is expectations plus the most recent quarter, Q2 2026. The holder question isn't growth; it's whether volume becomes cash that bends $42.5B of debt down.
Most recent quarter — Q2 2026 (reported Aug 10–11, 2026)
EPS $0.51 (Zacks basis, +264% YoY); adj. EBITDA $2.49B (+78.8%, 54% margin); net income $1.35B.
466.4 TBtu sold (+41.7%); Plaquemines 90, Calcasieu 37. 1,000th cargo reached ~4 years after the first.
Weighted-average liquefaction fee $5.05/MMBtu. FY cargo guide tightened to 500–518.
Above the ~$32–34B market cap. TTM FCF −$6.99B; H1 capex $6.9B vs $2.8B operating cash flow.
Q2 stock reaction: fell ~7.3% to $13.22 on Aug 11 despite the record print and a guidance raise (FY adj. EBITDA raised to $8.70–$9.10B) — the market focused on leverage and cash burn. The dip later reversed: shares were +11.4% in the month after the report.
Projects & the build-out
Operating & ramping
- Calcasieu Pass (~10 MTPA): commercial ops since Apr 15, 2025; 37 Q2 cargoes despite turbine maintenance.
- Plaquemines (~20 MTPA; ~27.2 with Phase 2): Phase 1 COD targeted Q4 2026 (slipped one quarter); Phase 2 COD mid-2027.
- CP2 (~20 MTPA): under construction; first LNG targeted H2 2027; Phase 2 FID + financing Mar 2026.
Expansions & optionality
- CP2 expansion upsized to 11.7 MTPA (FID targeted early 2027); Plaquemines expansion 6.4 MTPA (FID mid-2027).
- Combined ambition ~85 MTPA by end-2029; >100 MTPA in production/construction/development; ~$137B signed contract revenue cited at Q1 call.
- AI power (Oct 15): framework deals with GE Vernova + Baker Hughes for up to 16 × 720 MW power islands. No signed data-centre tenant disclosed — option value, not contracted cash flow.
Earnings history — reactions follow guidance & leverage, not the beat label
| Quarter | Consensus (MarketBeat) | Actual | Result | Revenue | Post-report move (FXEmpire) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 · Aug 10, 2026 | $0.50 | $0.51 | Beat | $4.58B | −7.29% |
| Q1 2026 · May 11, 2026 | $0.12 | $0.19 | Beat | $4.60B | +14.20% |
| Q4 2025 · Mar 2, 2026 | $0.35 | $0.41 | Beat | $4.45B | +17.44% |
| Q3 2025 · Nov 10, 2025 | $0.22 | $0.16 | Miss | $3.33B | +6.26% |
| Q1 2025 · May 13, 2025 | $0.24 | $0.16 | Miss | $2.89B | +8.17% |
| Q4 2024 · Mar 6, 2025 | $0.30 | $0.33 | Beat | $1.52B | −36.05% |
Beta is reported anywhere from −0.09 (Finnhub) to 0.35 depending on provider — don't rely on a single figure; the reaction history above (7–36% moves) is the honest volatility guide.
Bull case
- Second-largest US LNG exporter, scaling fast: revenue +48%, EBITDA +79% in Q2; 1,000 cargoes in 4 years.
- 91% of 2026 cargoes contracted; EBITDA guide raised twice to $8.7–$9.1B; path to ~85 MTPA by 2029.
- ~9–11× trailing earnings with a Buy consensus and ~$17+ average target; AI-power option on top.
Bear case
- Debt-funded and cash-negative: $42.5B debt, −$7B TTM FCF, ~$0.5B quarterly interest.
- Arbitration scar tissue: BP partial award Oct 2025 (claim cited $3.7B to >$6B, damages hearing 2026); Galp partial award Oct 7, 2026 capped at $170M; Orlen (>$2B cited) decision expected by end-2026.
- Spot exposure on the ~9% uncontracted tail; execution risk on Plaquemines COD and CP2.
Holder takeaway
VG holders get paid for deleveraging evidence, not volume records. Q3 (Nov 10) must show Plaquemines Phase 1 on track for Q4 COD, EBITDA tracking to the raised guide, and cash flow starting to bend leverage down.
Watch next — into 2027
- Plaquemines Phase 1 COD: confirmed in Q4 2026 or slipped again? Phase 2 readiness for mid-2027.
- Leverage & cash conversion: debt vs EBITDA, FCF, $3B revolver / refinancing savings.
- Arbitration: BP damages hearing, Orlen decision; 2027 contracting above the 91% level.
Analysts: Buy / Moderate Buy — StockAnalysis (18 analysts) avg $17.22, median $16.50, range $14–$22; MarketBeat Moderate Buy $16.53. Recent: Wells Fargo upgraded to Overweight, $15 → $21 (Oct 20); Goldman Buy restated (Oct 9); Bernstein Market Perform $14 (Oct 16); Scotiabank Sector Perform $16 (Oct 22); Zacks downgraded Strong-Buy → Hold (Oct 12).
Sources — Venture Global
- Timing: Quantisnow (company release) · Q2: Zacks
- Consensus range: Longbridge · FXEmpire · Barchart · WallStreetZen · MarketBeat
- Projects & contracts: Pulse 2.0 · Valuation: Trefis · StockAnalysis
Four numbers, two versions each
GAAP vs non-GAAP EPS — PayPal Q3: $1.25 vs $1.45
GAAP is the standardised, audited accounting every public company must report. Non-GAAP strips out items management argues aren't core operations — for PayPal, mostly $178M of restructuring, $33M of acquired-intangible amortisation, investment gains/losses and tax effects. Which to follow? Non-GAAP is what the market trades on — analyst estimates and guidance are non-GAAP. GAAP is the reality check: read the reconciliation every quarter. Small, stable gap = non-GAAP is a fair view. A gap that keeps widening, or “one-time” charges every quarter = trust GAAP more. Rule of thumb: non-GAAP for the trend, GAAP for the truth.
Free cash flow vs adjusted FCF — $1.43B vs $2.05B
Operating cash flow ($1.59B) is cash the business generated. Free cash flow subtracts capital spending ($161M) — real cash left over. Adjusted FCF adds back a $616M timing item for BNPL loans PayPal originates, briefly holds, then sells: cash goes out and returns on different days, so raw FCF swings on timing alone. Useful for the trend — but if adjusted FCF is always far above actual FCF, the “timing” is really cash out the door. In Q3 both fell YoY (FCF −17%, adjusted −10%), so the softness was real either way.
About BritoInvests
BritoInvests — at britoinvests.com — is the personal investing brand of Daryl Brito. Each earnings season, the companies he follows get one deep dive: reported results against the consensus bar, the company-specific metrics that matter, earnings history with the stock's actual reactions, the analyst picture, and a plain holder takeaway. New quarters are added as they report — next up: Venture Global on Nov 10, 2026.